 | Not even Saddam could achieve the divisions this election will bring
by Robert Fisk January 22, 2005
The Independent
Sunday 30 January will be the day when myth and reality come together
with - I fear - an all too literal bang. The magic date upon which Iraq
is supposed to transform itself into a democracy will no doubt be
greeted as another milestone in America's adventure and, I suspect,
another "great day for Iraq" by Lord Blair of Kut al-Amara. He, of
course, doesn't have to be blown up in the polling stations or torn to
pieces by suicide bombers on the way home. The "martyrs of democracy",
as I am sure the dead will be feted, will be those Iraqis who have
decided to go along with an election so physically dangerous that the
international observers will be "observing" the poll from Amman.
The real trouble with this election, however, is not so much the
violence that will take place before, during and, rest assured, after
30 January. The greatest threat to "democracy" is that with four
provinces containing around half the population of Iraq in a state of
insurgency and many of its towns under rebel control, this election is
going to widen the differences between Sunnis, Shias and Kurds in a way
that not even Saddam Hussein was able to achieve. If the Sunnis don't
vote - save for those living in America, Syria and other exotic
locations - then the Shia community, perhaps 60 per cent of the
population, will take an overwhelming number of seats in the
"Transitional National Assembly".
In other words, the Shias, who are not fighting the U.S. occupation of
Iraq, will be voting under American auspices while the Sunnis, who are
fighting, will refuse to participate in what the insurgents have
already labeled a "quisling" election. The four million Kurds will
vote. But however many seats they gain, they are not going to abandon
their quasi-independence after the election. Thus the dangers of civil
war - so trumpeted by the Americans and British - may be increased
rather than suppressed by this much-touted experiment in democracy. In
fact, Iraq is a tribal - not a religious - society and the real war,
which some in the West might like to be replaced by the civil variety,
will continue to be between Sunni insurgents and the United States
military.
Nevertheless, nobody could miss the significance of last week's
assassination of Mahmoud al-Madaen, along with his son and four
bodyguards, at Salman Pak, south of Baghdad. Al-Madaen was the personal
representative in the town of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the leading
Shia prelate in Iraq. On the same day, another of Ayatollah Sistani's
aides, Halim al-Moaqaq was found "drowned in his own blood", according
to a spokesman, in Najaf. The ayatollah has given his blessing to the
elections which will, theoretically at least, give Shias power for the
first time after being marginalised and crushed by the Ottomans, the
British, the kings and then the Sunni dictators of Iraq.
The Shias have been repeatedly told by their leaders to take no revenge
for these attacks and have behaved with remarkable restraint. Even when
Mohamed Baqr al-Hakim, the leader of the Supreme Council for Islamic
Revolution in Iraq, was blown up by a car bomb last year there was not
a single act of vengeance committed by the Shias. Yet they well
understand the threat uttered by Osama bin Laden, that participation in
the elections is an act of apostasy because the Iraqi constitution "is
a Jahaliyya constitution that is made by man". Literally meaning
"ignorant", Bin Laden's expression refers to the Arabs of pre-Islamic
times, who lived in "ignorance" of God before the birth of the Prophet.
Of one thing we can be sure: those Iraqis who vote will be brave men
and women. Whether they are wise is another matter.
Yet even if the Shias win the largest share of seats in the 275-member
parliament, the war will go on and the Sunnis will have nothing to lose
by supporting it. Besides, the election is of such complexity that even
those who dare to visit polling stations in Sunni areas may be
perplexed by the ballot. There are 75 parties and nine coalitions
standing - in all, 7,471 candidates for the 275 seats - and all will be
elected by proportional representation. Any candidate who receives
1/275th of the vote will get a seat. A party with 20 per cent of the
vote would get 20 per cent of the seats, its 55 top-scoring candidates
going to parliament. The parliament's job is to propose a constitution
which will then be put before a referendum - another dangerous poll
that is supposed to be held before 15 October and then - wait for it -
there will be elections by 15 December to choose a new government.
This divinely optimistic schedule has been put together by the
Americans and Iraqis inside the Green Zone, the much-mortared fortress
in central Baghdad from which few emerge to visit the real world of
open sewers and power-cut suburbs and destitution beyond their gates.
Of course, with all those observers sipping their gin and tonics in
Amman, there's no way of ensuring that the voting figures for these
elections cannot be massaged. That the electoral group headed by the
current "interim" Prime Minister, ex-CIA agent Iyad Allawi, should have
been caught handing out $100 bills in plain envelopes to Iraqi
journalists last week did not suggest that the poll will be free of
corruption. The Americans and British will make great play, of course,
of the thousands of Iraqis who vote abroad as well as the turn-out in
Shia cities and in the Kurdish north. We'll be told repeatedly that the
Iraqi people have expressed their democratic wishes, that freedom
really has arrived in Iraq, that the bombers could not defeat the march
of democracy, etc.
All well and good. But without the Sunni vote the parliament will be as
unrepresentative of the nation as those glorious elections of old. And
there is other cause for worry. While the insurgency has continued, the
number of suicide bombings over the past few days has noticeably
dropped. I wonder why. Have the volunteers dried up? Or are the suicide
squads being saved up and collected in preparation for the big day?
http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=15&ItemID=7081
STILL FEELING LIKE THE MAINSTREAM U.S. CORPORATE MEDIA
IS GIVING A FULL HONEST PICTURE OF WHAT'S GOING ON?
= = = =
Daily online radio show, news reporting: www.DemocracyNow.org
More news: UseNet's misc.activism.progressive (moderated)
= = = =
Sorry, we cannot read/reply to most usenet posts but welcome email
FOR MORE INFORMATION: http://EconomicDemocracy.org/wtc/ (peace)
http://economicdemocracy.org/eco/climate-summary.html (Climate)
And http://EconomicDemocracy.org/ (general)
** ANTI-SPAM EMAIL NOTE: For email "info" and "map" don't work. Email
to
** m-a-i-l-m-a-i-l (without the dashes) at economicdemocracy.org instead
|
|
