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 | | From: | Steven L. Robinson | | Subject: | [progchat_action] Tip of the Iceberg | | Date: | Sat, 22 Jan 2005 21:43:44 -0500 |
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 | Tip of the Iceberg
by Bilal El-Amine from Left Turn
http://auto_sol.tao.ca/node/view/1127?PHPSESSID=6938f483a2fcb98046a2632b58bea950
The US elections revealed the unfortunate fact that a large section of the
American population does not appreciate the profound mess created by the
Bush administration in Iraq. Fresh figures of US casualties for November
easily matched the record set last April (2003) when occupation forces
besieged Najaf and Falluja. And December looks just as grim - the first
weekend alone harvested 80 Iraqi deaths, mostly national guardsmen or
police, who are being slaughtered by the dozens at the hands of the
resistance. No doubt, the road to the Iraqi elections set for the end of
January will be paved with blood.
Much of the American public's ignorance is probably due to media
manipulation or Pentagon spin. The Pentagon, for example, has consistently
portrayed the resistance as a limited number of fighters - "remnants of the
old regime," "foreign Arab fighters" and so on. In the first months of the
occupation, the US military estimated the number of guerrillas to be around
2,000 to 3,000 fighters. But the sheer scale of the insurgency - up to 150
attacks a day according to the most recent figures - eventually forced them
to revise that number to 20,000-25,000.
Yet the Pentagon continued to maintain the deception that these were largely
foreign fighters funded by outsiders and that with enough force, the
resistance can be broken. But the November assault on Falluja, supposedly
the last isolated haven for the resistance, proved the Pentagon's
predictions deadly wrong. As the former UN arms inspector Scott Ritter
rightly described it, the US military confrontation with the Iraqi
resistance is like fighting jello - you push it down in one spot, it erupts
elsewhere with equal intensity. And that is precisely what happened: as the
Marines were flattening Falluja to the ground, hundreds of resistance
fighters overran Iraq's third largest city of Mosul, killing and dispersing
its 4,000-member police force in the course of a day.
That the resistance can move so easily from city to city and operate so
brazenly suggests the fighters are merely the tip of the iceberg and enjoy
wide support among the Iraqi population, which shares their rage against the
US occupation. In this context, the heavy-handed policies of the US military
only serve to turn previously passive supporters into active guerrilla
fighters. The assault on Falluja which completely destroyed the city and
emptied it of its 200,000-300,000 inhabitants will certainly swell the
number of resistance sympathizers for years to come. If the Pentagon
believed its own propaganda and most of the fighters were in fact not Iraqi,
then the Falluja assault may very well have broken the back of the
resistance, but even according to the US military, less than 5% of the
guerrillas captured in Falluja turned out to be foreigners.
Although the armed resistance today is largely Sunni and operates mainly in
Sunni areas, it would be a mistake to think that the Shia majority in any
way supports the occupation. It is true that the armed wing of the Shia
resistance under the leadership of Muqtada al-Sadr has been contained -
crucially with the help of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. But the Shia are
now looking to the elections as the means by which to expel the US from
Iraq. The moderate Sistani (who, it should be noted, has consistently
refused to meet with any American officials) has always maintained that as
soon as there is a legitimate Iraqi government, it should negotiate the
withdrawal of American troops. If the US attempts to block or manipulate the
elections to prevent such an outcome, we may yet see the return of armed
resistance in Shia areas.
Reluctant supporters
Having failed to quell the resistance, the Bush administration now has a lot
riding on the upcoming election and has held firm to the January 30
deadline, hoping against hope that Iraq's now multi-layered problems can be
handled by the new government. But this is highly unlikely. The siege and
destruction of Falluja has further alienated the Sunni population, who will
not only boycott the elections but will do all they can to undermine the
process.
But even if enough Sunnis participate to declare the new government
legitimate, who will maintain order and enforce the new constitution?
Attempts at building an Iraqi police and army have failed miserably so far
and the resistance has repeatedly shown it can easily defeat any such force
without US protection. This can only mean that because of its incompetence
and brutality, the occupation will continue as before with US troops trying
suppress a resistance that only grows stronger with each assault.
Some reluctant supporters of the war, who acknowledge that it was a mistake
to invade, continue to maintain that the US must "stay the course" to
prevent the country from descending into civil war or becoming a "failed
state." But this begs the question - it is the very presence of US troops in
Iraq that is radicalizing the population and exacerbating religious and
ethnic divisions. Thousands of Iraq's Christians for example have already
fled and relocated in Syria. And in response to the uprising in Mosul, the
US military dispatched a Kurdish militia to restore order in a city with an
Arab majority. Add to that, rebel control of critical areas of Baghdad like
Haifa Street and the road to the airport, not to mention daily kidnappings
and widespread insecurity, one wonders if Iraq is not already a "failed
state."
The best case scenario for the occupation is to muddle through for years
hoping to eventually exhaust the resistance while racking up Vietnam-scale
casualties on both sides. But given the current trend of a growing
resistance despite (or perhaps, because of) a ruthless counter-insurgency
campaign, even this scenario is unlikely to succeed. The only option that
remains is for the US to declare a date to completely withdraw its troops
from Iraqi soil and with the help of the UN or the Arab League launch
diplomatic efforts for a power-sharing agreement among the various Iraqi
parties (including ones hostile to the US). The current course will only
lead to disaster, if it has not done so already.
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