From:	AndrewSshi at yahoo.com
Subject:	[Paging Noel] Could Mexico Get the Factories Instead of China?
Date:	20 Jan 2005 06:21:26 -0800

Mexico is right next to the United States of America, is part of a
free-trade area, and has cheap labor. In spite of all of this, it
seems that the majority of consumer goods are produced in China, a
country with which there are trade restrictions and which also happens
to be on the other side of the Pacific Ocean.

My thought then is: Is there any way with a POD in the early 1990's to
divert the factories that mostly migrated to China to Mexico instead?
Is Chinese labor *that* much cheaper?

I'm looking for someone like Noel's expertise on this. A Mexico that
becomes the industrial powerhouse of the Western Hemisphere would have
all kinds of knock-on effects, most of which are beyond me.
So this is more a thought that I'm throwing open to the group.

From:	boleslawski at forpresident.com
Subject:	Re: [Paging Noel] Could Mexico Get the Factories Instead of China?
Date:	20 Jan 2005 18:15:21 -0800

IMO, Mexico could do it with fewer improvements in infrastructure if
China's infrastructure was worse.

So this discounts the scenario of Zhao taking power (which IMO is
almost utopian)

The possibility of post-Tiananmen chaos involving terrorism and
civil war would definately do it. I wonder what the international
community's response would be to a disintegrating China, with
the nukes vulnerable to theft.....

From:	Juan Valdez
Subject:	Re: [Paging Noel] Could Mexico Get the Factories Instead of China?
Date:	Fri, 21 Jan 2005 18:59:18 +0000 (UTC)

"boleslawski" wrote in message
news:1106273721.094197.220750@f14g2000cwb.googlegroups.com

> IMO, Mexico could do it with fewer improvements in infrastructure if
> China's infrastructure was worse.

Ah, but wi that means that there's just less outsourcing altogether, as
added manufacturing costs for Mexico makes it more attractive to produce
in the USA?

--
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG

From:	markedel at hotmail.com
Subject:	Re: Could Mexico Get the Factories Instead of China?
Date:	22 Jan 2005 20:33:25 -0800

> > I'm looking for someone like Noel's expertise on this. A Mexico
that
> > becomes the industrial powerhouse of the Western Hemisphere would
have
> > all kinds of knock-on effects, most of which are beyond me.
> > So this is more a thought that I'm throwing open to the group.

It's not as if the U.S is producing _less_ then say a couple decades
ago. Its just that the U.S needs less people to do so.

From:	Matt Giwer
Subject:	Re: [Paging Noel] Could Mexico Get the Factories Instead of China?
Date:	Sun, 23 Jan 2005 04:00:41 GMT

AndrewSshi@yahoo.com wrote:
> Mexico is right next to the United States of America, is part of a
> free-trade area, and has cheap labor. In spite of all of this, it
> seems that the majority of consumer goods are produced in China, a
> country with which there are trade restrictions and which also happens
> to be on the other side of the Pacific Ocean.

> My thought then is: Is there any way with a POD in the early 1990's to
> divert the factories that mostly migrated to China to Mexico instead?
> Is Chinese labor *that* much cheaper?

> I'm looking for someone like Noel's expertise on this. A Mexico that
> becomes the industrial powerhouse of the Western Hemisphere would have
> all kinds of knock-on effects, most of which are beyond me.
> So this is more a thought that I'm throwing open to the group.

China has a work ethic that makes American Protestants look like slackers. When
they went to work on the Pacific Railroad they produced several times more track
miles than the Europeans.

--
If you sue and act as your own attorney while the other side
hires Alan Derschowitz, only winning is noteworthy.
-- The Iron Webmaster, 3356

From:	Juan Valdez
Subject:	Re: [Paging Noel] Could Mexico Get the Factories Instead of China?
Date:	Fri, 21 Jan 2005 00:32:15 +0000 (UTC)

"AndrewSshi@yahoo.com" wrote in message
news:1106230886.513484.10130@c13g2000cwb.googlegroups.com

> My thought then is: Is there any way with a POD in the early 1990's to
> divert the factories that mostly migrated to China to Mexico instead?
> Is Chinese labor *that* much cheaper?

I'm not an expert, but I'm familiar with the problem.

Basically, China has cheap labor, and excellent infrastructure. Mexico
has
somewhat less cheap labor and more importantly, poor infrastructure.

Infrastructure is key to just in time supply chains and lean
manufacturing.

Good infrastructure afaik takes longer than a decade to develop. So any
POD would have to be earlier... like early 80s earlier.

But I don't spend my days researching this info like Noel does, so if he
differs...

--
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG

From:	boleslawski at forpresident.com
Subject:	Re: [Paging Noel] Could Mexico Get the Factories Instead of China?
Date:	22 Jan 2005 00:03:08 -0800

There are a few other Third World nations with decent infrastructure,
like Tunisia. Is it possible to do outsourcing there?

From:	Rich Rostrom
Subject:	Re: [Paging Noel] Could Mexico Get the Factories Instead of China?
Date:	Fri, 21 Jan 2005 13:41:27 -0600

"AndrewSshi@yahoo.com" wrote:

>My thought then is: Is there any way with a POD in the early 1990's to
>divert the factories that mostly migrated to China to Mexico instead?
>Is Chinese labor *that* much cheaper?

Cheaper, and from what I have read, more reliable.

I've seen some commentary on businesses that tried
to relocate to Mexico and failed.

Maybe Mexicans aren't "hungry" enough, but one
issue mentioned in these studies was that many
Mexican workers often quit when they had money
saved up.

Sometimes so many would leave in a short time
that plant operations would suffer. They didn't
have the career/loyalist attitude that makes for
steady long-term or even middle-term workforce.

This problem may exist in China, too, but I
haven't heard of it there.
--
Nothing which was ever expressed originally in the English language resembles,
except in the most distant way, the thought of Plotinus, or Hegel, or Foucault.
I take this to be enormously to the credit of our language. -- David Stove

From:	markedel at hotmail.com
Subject:	Re: Could Mexico Get the Factories Instead of China?
Date:	22 Jan 2005 21:25:12 -0800

China, however, has serious structural problems that will have to be
dealt with in some fashion. Not that they aren't solvable, but they are
large, and they can be problematic. And that's just issues of economic
equality and institutional integrity.

Still there's validity to the China as future thesis-certainly with
8-10% growth rates China (and if all goes really well India) will be
pleasant places to live for many, many people by 2050 or so.

Of course there won't be any water, trees, or topsoil left at that
point, though I suppose there's room for optimism on that score.

From:	Noel
Subject:	Re: Could Mexico Get the Factories Instead of China?
Date:	21 Jan 2005 15:40:18 -0800

Rich Rostrom wrote:
> "AndrewSshi@yahoo.com" wrote:
>
>
> >My thought then is: Is there any way with a POD in the early 1990's
to
> >divert the factories that mostly migrated to China to Mexico
instead?
> >Is Chinese labor *that* much cheaper?
>
> Cheaper, and from what I have read, more reliable.
>
> I've seen some commentary on businesses that tried
> to relocate to Mexico and failed.

---I would be delighted, astoundingly delighted,
to get any citations you have on this topic.

Case-writing and all. I take any lead I can get.

> Maybe Mexicans aren't "hungry" enough, but one
> issue mentioned in these studies was that many
> Mexican workers often quit when they had money
> saved up.
>
> Sometimes so many would leave in a short time
> that plant operations would suffer. They didn't
> have the career/loyalist attitude that makes for
> steady long-term or even middle-term workforce.

---If this was in the border region, it's a side
effect of (relatively) high Mexican wages and the
lure of the United States. (Again, please, cites!
Not because I don't believe you, but because I
could really use them.)

Maquiladora wages are about half of the average
wages available in Mexico, and far less than half
of what's available across the border. In order
to get a more stable workforce, they would need
to raise wages.

Henry Ford faced the same problem.

Best,

Noel

From:	roamulus at go.com
Subject:	Re: Could Mexico Get the Factories Instead of China?
Date:	22 Jan 2005 20:43:53 -0800

AndrewSshi@yahoo.com wrote:
> Mexico is right next to the United States of America, is part of a
> free-trade area, and has cheap labor. In spite of all of this, it
> seems that the majority of consumer goods are produced in China, a
> country with which there are trade restrictions and which also
happens
> to be on the other side of the Pacific Ocean.

Note per capita GDPs.

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/print/ch.html

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/print/mx.html

>From the numbers alone at least, it seems
that Mexico has nothing to complain about.

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/print/tz.html

Nonetheless, what Japan did over a century
ago gradually seems to be spilling into China.
China is serious about what most of the world
is not. When you consider total populations
involved, as well as GDP growth rates, it
appears that China is the future.

From:	boleslawski at forpresident.com
Subject:	Re: [Paging Noel] Could Mexico Get the Factories Instead of China?
Date:	20 Jan 2005 15:49:21 -0800

Two possibilities IMO, on the chinese end.

The first: Zhao Ziyang wins the power struggle in the CCP and
China transitions towards a sort of democracy. With more freedom,
workers are free to organize. Chinese labor costs go up and
Chinese labor is no longer so cheap.

The second: the military crushing of the students at Tiananmen Square
leads to civil war. Repressed student groups turn to
terrorism, which unleashes every other force dissatisfied with
the government. Falun Gong suicide bombers? China is seen by
the international business community as being no more safe
than Algeria. This one could turn nasty if the nukes slip out of
official control.