Blasting to 3N with 4333

Subject:	Blasting to 3N with 4333
Date:	Wed, 3 Feb 2010 06:23:19 -0800 (PST)

As a follow-up to a previous thread, here is a quick DD analysis of
9pt 4333 hands vs a 15-17 pt notrump, differentiated by opener's
count.

Tricks 15Count 16Count 17Count
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
3 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
5 8 3 1
6 46 18 7
7 187 107 36
8 427 357 235
9 268 366 455
10 55 136 222
11 6 12 40
12 1 1 4
13 0 0 0
Avg 8.088 8.526 8.982
SD 1.017 0.982 0.936
Freq 436 330 234

So, opposite the 43.6% likelihood of a 15count, you can expect to make
3N 33% of the time [DD - likely slightly higher in real life],
opposite a 33% 16count, you can expect to make 3N 51.5%, and opposite
23.4% 17count, the likelihood is 72.1%.

Each result is based on 1000 deal simulation with NO constraints put
on opposition hands and opener limited to 4333, 4432, 5m332 hands,
typical of most NA strong notrump partnerships.

Cheers,
Kurt